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10 posts
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Originally posted by noahnoah:
When u guys think it will be totally clear?
I think end of this year?
Are you repeating what Alan Greenspan said in today's paper?Honestly, nobody cant be certain about it, because it is a moving target. If the consumer sentiment and unemployment in US get worse, more CDOs will turn bad and banks will have to write off more subprime related investment.
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yup its all about market sentiment and consumer confidence. But generally, i think businesses are still doing well, especially in the asia pacific, therefore, there's nothing to worry about - in that we will sink into a recession. The top concern now should be about rising food prices and inflation.
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sub-prime itself will blow over in the US soon, imo. i think we now need to live with the consequences and its chain reaction now, i.e. weaker market sentiments, lower spending power, corporations cutting back jobs or expansion plan in view of the weaken markets, etc.
what's worrying is whether there are other sub-primes crisis not unearth outside of the US.
also agree with arapahoe's viewpoint. the intricate web of the loan crisis is taking its own sweet time to find the `next fall guy'. maybe soon.
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Mortgage writedowns, CDOs, Credit crisis, crisis of confidence etc are just the repercussions of the breakdown in the underlying fundamental issue: The downturn of the U.S. housing markets.
Once the U.S. housing markets completely "bottoms-out", foreclosures will start reducing, then and only then can the markets start to discuss about restoring consumer and credit confidence etc.
My most optimistic estimate: 3-6 mths after the U.S. presidential elections.
My 2cts deposited in view of the recession.
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