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LoginTime Start Thinking Investing Stock for Long Term
40 posts
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Originally posted by TCH05:
one question, are we at the bottom already?
So what is the crash ? I'm seriously very confused. Somebody said crash but but but I don't see the economy crumbling, I don't see companies winding up, I don't see people losing their Jobs and marbles. Looking at the charts I see a major correction but crash ?!
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the stock markets were saved by the intervention of the Feds so it wasnt so bad, it even recovered last week.. but not even the Feds can stop the inevitable impending recession.. so nows a good time to read books on stocks... once the recession is over the stock markets will be at its lowest and i'll be ready
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There are of course no guarantees and that is why you do not borrow money or use money you need in the short term for investment.
That would be gambling or speculating.
In my previous threads, I said to sell in November last year and I was proven right.
How did I know? If you can read and digest economic news and understand the impact, you would to.
Now the situation has change enough to consider going in. There is no hurry. Now you look at the economic landscape and determine which companies would best capitalize on it.
This is the best you can do and there are no guarantees. The company could for example face some internal problems in the future and your best efforts at forecasting come to naught.
Or suddenly there is a Bird Flu crisis… and these things no one can control.
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It is ridiculous to say that you should hold on to your stocks when you see an impending financial crisis like the one that unfolded recently. This is even more so when the market was at the highs.
You cannot in the name of 'long term investment' behave if not a stupid manner then a careless and irresponsible manner.
Now that the prices has come down it is time to consider buying stocks again. What you need to do is to study which blue chip has come down to decent valuations. You do not need to time the bootom, like you said, but there are seasons when you do not even consider buying stocks and there are times when you consider buying stocks.
When the market was at the highs and valuations was not attractive, you would not consider buying even though you might want to hold on to your positions, those you had bought earlier.
When the situation is dire like recently (from mid of last year), you do not even want to hold on to your positions. You clear everything and wait.
Wait for what? Wait for the market to down and start looking at the stocks that you want to buy, those that are blue chips and with decent valuations.
The US has probably entered into recession and the markets will be very volatile. This would be a good time to pick up some good buys at prices you would not be able to get except in a recessionary period.
When your time-frame is in terms of years, as a long term investor's would be, there is no hurry. Take your time, consider the stocks you would like in your portfolio, and buy when the market crashes.
In summary, do not buy (but hold) when the market is bullish, sell when the economy is turning down (but markets have not reacted), wait after selling, evavluate what to buy (now), then buy when the market crashes and wait a couple of years or more until the next cycle.
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Should the business close down just because there is a recession? No.
Should investors sell their shares when they see a downturn in the business? Yes.
Are minority shares holders the same as majority share holders? No?
Just because there are some similarities between business owners and investors, does it mean that they are the same thing? No. Otherwise wives would the the same as prostitutes because there are some similarities, like they are bith women, for example.
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worst example ever.
Anyway, the resolution of this matter lies in the function of the investor. If he's a long term investor buying into a company via shares because he believes in the future of the company, there is no difference in his role and that of a man who starts a business.
Andrew however is referring to the investor(or speculator) who buys shares with the intention of selling them for a profit. I find it highly amusing because Andrew has always flamed speculators. Anyway, speculators obviously hold no loyalty to the company and will dump shares high to buy back low.
Still, more than a few people have lost their shirt on such strategies based on market timing. Andrew, you're still living in HDB right?
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chiu dun eatch mee hokays ? i ish e nice critter.
