Gambling, like forex trading, never pays....
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proven to be a grossly stupid person...
link: http://www.sgforums.com/?action=thread_display&thread_id=291748&page=10
23 November 2007
Post time: 08:52 AM
AND
Post time: 11:23 AM
Summary:
Thread title: Gambling, like forex trading, never pays....
deathbait: Member Joined: 13 Jul 2007:
20 November 2007 · 08:29 AM " odds are everything...
20 November 2007 · 03:37 PM " i reply : but odds ARE everything "
20 November 2007 · 04:01 PM " 1)i mention the concept of odds 2)you tell me i think odds are everything 3)i agree that's what i meant"
20 November 2007 · 04:38 PM " u'll notice that my posts have been littered with my stand that odds are everything. "
22 November 2007 · 11:21 AM " i will say again. Odds are everything. "
and so on, ... *sigh*
and to the question: "
22 November 2007 · 05:14 PM " just think... if "odds ARE everything" would people let you download the software for FREE as shareware? "
deathbait: Member Joined: 13 Jul 2007: " odds calculation programs? And how does this in any way disprove my point?"
proven (with his supporters) to be a grossly stupid people... and take his opinions if you want..... "
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... and his supporters opinions, if you want...
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unlike you andrew, i have no clone.Originally posted by AndrewPKYap:Is that "odds ARE everything" chap... your clone? -
yah lah... can't be your clone.. we have crossed swords before and you were never even close to being so stupid...Originally posted by Chin Eng:unlike you andrew, i have no clone. -
Unlike apky's book "Insights into Casino Gambling and Stock Market Speculation with a section on Concepts for Living a Successful Life"
these books on odds are really really available in the marketplace:
http://www.alibris.com/search/books/qwork/3019202/used/How%20to%20figure%20the%20odds%20on%20everything
http://www.orionbooks.co.uk/HB-39264/What-Are-The-Odds?.htm=
...actually come to think of it, the caption on the book cover: "In order to be a winner in life: you must have good insights as to why people lose as well as why people win", isn't this calculation of odds?
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onceinabluemoon.....Originally posted by AndrewPKYap:yah lah... can't be your clone.. we have crossed swords before and you were never even close to being so stupid... -
it's never a waste of time to bring to the public's attention someone who's spreading false information and inciting mass panic.Originally posted by elindra:deathbait, I think you are wasting your time and energy on him -
you mean exposing a con man trying to sell his book in the forum?Originally posted by deathbait:it's never a waste of time to bring to the public's attention someone who's spreading false information and inciting mass panic. -
very astute=)Originally posted by Chin Eng:Unlike apky's book "Insights into Casino Gambling and Stock Market Speculation with a section on Concepts for Living a Successful Life"
these books on odds are really really available in the marketplace:
http://www.alibris.com/search/books/qwork/3019202/used/How%20to%20figure%20the%20odds%20on%20everything
http://www.orionbooks.co.uk/HB-39264/What-Are-The-Odds?.htm=
...actually come to think of it, the caption on the book cover: "In order to be a winner in life: you must have good insights as to why people lose as well as why people win", isn't this calculation of odds?
but actually, no, it's not a direct calculation of odds.
But the sole reason why some ppl win and some ppl lose is simple. The ppl who win more often are the ones who play the odds correctly more often. It's a mathematically proven fact.
And i'm not afraid to say it again. Odds are everything. If you play by the odds all the time, you'll always be the favourite to come out as the winner. -
yup, I don't disagree with the statement that "it's not a direct calculation of odds"....Originally posted by deathbait:but actually, no, it's not a direct calculation of odds.
But the sole reason why some ppl win and some ppl lose is simple. The ppl who win more often are the ones who play the odds correctly more often. It's a mathematically proven fact.
And i'm not afraid to say it again. Odds are everything. If you play by the odds all the time, you'll always be the favourite to come out as the winner.
we do what we do because we calculate (directly or indirectly, mathematically or logically) whether we stand the chance of winning (or being satisfied, or happy, or feeling good ....). -
Originally posted by Gazelle:you mean exposing a con man trying to sell his book in the forum?
i don't think apky actually reached the point of SELLING. All he did was to make claims that he is a writer and he has written the aforementioned book. It is also entire possible that at this point, he is telling the truth. However as long as the book is not available for purchase, I can only conclude that the book remains unpublished.
... if not this Christmas.... maybe next Christmas... heh, Andrew??? -
amazon doesn't have the book listedOriginally posted by Chin Eng: i don't think apky actually reached the point of SELLING. All he did was to make claims that he is a writer and he has written the aforementioned book. It is also entire possible that at this point, he is telling the truth. However as long as the book is not available for purchase, I can only conclude that the book remains unpublished.
... if not this Christmas.... maybe next Christmas... heh, Andrew??? -
I read it. But how does one come up with the numbers? Like say 50% chance of 10% return...is this guesswork based on the investors gut feeling?Originally posted by deathbait:good question
sorry i left it out
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/expectedreturn.asp
that link explains it rather well i think. -
maybe it's a figment of someone's imagination......Originally posted by deathbait:amazon doesn't have the book listed
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Please continue speculating... I want to see how much foolishness and crapz people that depend on illusions and delusions in their mind, instead of proof and evidence, can generate....
To my coolie... thanks for bumping up my thread... -
Let me make a record...Originally posted by deathbait:very astute=)
but actually, no, it's not a direct calculation of odds.
But the sole reason why some ppl win and some ppl lose is simple. The ppl who win more often are the ones who play the odds correctly more often. It's a mathematically proven fact.
And i'm not afraid to say it again. Odds are everything. If you play by the odds all the time, you'll always be the favourite to come out as the winner.
23 November 2007 · 01:44 PM
"And i'm not afraid to say it again. Odds are everything." -
ok there are two schools of thought on this.Originally posted by ami128:I read it. But how does one come up with the numbers? Like say 50% chance of 10% return...is this guesswork based on the investors gut feeling?
Prior to the computer boom, investors used to invest with their gut based on the limited information available.
Presently, the new wave of young traders are using computer simulations based on the monte carlo technique. Using computers to crunch vast amounts of statistical information, they try to approximate the odds to get a mathematical value.
Both methods have their flaws, but they're essentially trying to estimate odds. In an imperfect information system, it's never possible to correctly calculate your odds accurately. That is why it's easy to write programs that will always beat human players in suduku, harder in chess, and impossible in poker.
In the firm I work at, we crunch historical data, run it through our proposed trading strategy, and find the odds of each perceivable outcome. It's a complicated process we leave to the computer programs.
So like i said, odds is the holy grail of all investments. It's probably never going to be possible for us to nail it down to a specific number. What we get currently is a range of possible values. Andrew might have you thinking that the old school investors never had these resource at their disposal when they traded, but they were still successful. And in all truthfulness, they may not even know they are estimating odds. But whenever they make a decision, they really are doing so based on their memory of past experience.
So the simpler answer to your question is : for smaller investors, you mainly have to rely on your gut. Big institutions nowadays use computers to crunch data to justify their actions based on odds. You can actually get in trouble in an audit if you cannot prove sufficiently that you were playing the odds, and not just blind gambling. -
the real joke is that Andrew doesn't realise he's advocating odds calculation. But I digress.Originally posted by AndrewPKYap:Please continue speculating... I want to see how much foolishness and crapz people that depend on illusions and delusions in their mind, instead of proof and evidence, can generate....
To my coolie... thanks for bumping up my thread...
This needs to be stressed again and again. Variance is high in the markets. It's what the layman considers luck. Making the right decisions based on odds only guarantee you win in the LONG RUN. If you are committing too much of your bankroll in any one type of trade, you stand a good chance of getting beaten down by variance before you can get to the long run benefits.
For more information check out:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_ruin
There are even formulas developed to determine your optimum bankroll management.
Exercise proper bankroll management and utilise all the odds information given to you. That is the correct way to make investments and guarantee long term gains. -
What bankroll management? Please don't confuse your simpleton mind... ok? "odds ARE everything..." remember? You said it so many times and let's where is the record I made.... ah here it is:Originally posted by deathbait:There are even formulas developed to determine your optimum bankroll management.
Exercise proper bankroll management and utilise all the odds information given to you. That is the correct way to make investments and guarantee long term gains.Originally posted by AndrewPKYap:Let me make a record...
23 November 2007 · 01:44 PM
"And i'm not afraid to say it again. Odds are everything." -
What Andrew is trying to say here is, he's lost for words, so he's showing re-runs for now.
If you have any more questions on how to utilise or calculate odds, feel free to post here or PM me. -
hahaha...
tsk tsk tsk. if and rew had let tis thread rest in peace he wouldn't be facing so much disgrace now. who ask him keep bumping his own thread. -
....so you were lying when you talked about "bankroll management"? chey I thought that you had come to your senses and decided that odds are not everything... *sigh* so you continue to think that "odds ARE everything... " and I can continue to safely use the label simpleton on you...
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... and I can safely continue to label your supporters... grossly stupid simpletons...
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An accurate discription. However there is one thing I would like to add. Past performance is never an accurate indicator of future success. You can have the machine backtest historical figures and spit out all the charts you want, there is still a good possibility that the end result differs from what actually happens. The only reason why machines are used is because institutional investors handle extremely large sums of money everyday. They are never a substitute for the skill of the investor in setting the terms and conditions for the machine to determine the result.Originally posted by deathbait:ok there are two schools of thought on this.
Prior to the computer boom, investors used to invest with their gut based on the limited information available.
Presently, the new wave of young traders are using computer simulations based on the monte carlo technique. Using computers to crunch vast amounts of statistical information, they try to approximate the odds to get a mathematical value.
Both methods have their flaws, but they're essentially trying to estimate odds. In an imperfect information system, it's never possible to correctly calculate your odds accurately. That is why it's easy to write programs that will always beat human players in suduku, harder in chess, and impossible in poker.
In the firm I work at, we crunch historical data, run it through our proposed trading strategy, and find the odds of each perceivable outcome. It's a complicated process we leave to the computer programs.
So like i said, odds is the holy grail of all investments. It's probably never going to be possible for us to nail it down to a specific number. What we get currently is a range of possible values. Andrew might have you thinking that the old school investors never had these resource at their disposal when they traded, but they were still successful. And in all truthfulness, they may not even know they are estimating odds. But whenever they make a decision, they really are doing so based on their memory of past experience.
So the simpler answer to your question is : for smaller investors, you mainly have to rely on your gut. Big institutions nowadays use computers to crunch data to justify their actions based on odds. You can actually get in trouble in an audit if you cannot prove sufficiently that you were playing the odds, and not just blind gambling.
To the home investor, I would suggest taking a course on reading financial ratios which are crucial to fundamental analysis.
I rank:
Fundamental Analysis:60%
Technical Analysis*:10%
Luck:30%
*what the machine does -
ok i'm going to ignore Andrew until he comes up with new/better points from here on out. Replying to the same unoriginal insults for the 12th time is getting old.
But i'll elaborate a little here. If you want to make money from investments, odds are everything. If you want to avoid going broke, bankroll management is important. Risk vs Reward. The age old question of finding the balance.
What andrew is trying to do is confuse the innocent readers that bankroll management has anything to do with deciding what to invest in. It doesn't. Bankroll management is the check in place to keep you from danger against the huge variance in the market.
Kind of like a car. You want the car to bring you from point A to point B in the quickest time. But you still want to have that handbrake there to save you from yourself.
Bankroll management isn't even essential for making investments. Big firms leverage(going against core principles in bankroll management) their investments all the time. They accept the huge risk in favor of bigger rewards because they can absorb the damage when push comes to shove. It is however recommended that private investors exercise it though.
There's a concept in professional gambling that can be used to illustrate the situation here. It's called playing with scared money.
If you're playing with money you NEED(eg school fees, daily essentials, rent), you need to seriously consider and minimise your risk. If you have 200k, and you need to spend 2k a month, investing with 20k is perfectly fine. It's not 'scared money'. A loss will hurt, but it won't cripple you. If you only have 3k in your account and you need 2k this month, it's a terrible idea to invest that 2k, even though the odds are the same as before(and let's assume extremely profitable).
The dangers of playing with scared money is obvious. As i have pointed out in a previous post, we as humans can try to play the odds all we want, but eventually we are still guided by our emotions. When you enter the market with a strategy, you have to follow it through. You know your odds, and you know you have a positive expectation only if you follow it through. That's easy to do if you're not playing with scared money. What happens when you are?
Again let's use the 2k scenario. You have 3k, invest 2k and need 2k at the end of the month. You effectively have only 1k of liquidity left, which is not enough. Assuming you enter at the beginning of the month expecting to cash out profitably at the end of the month, various things could happen to make you second guess yourself unneccessarily if you are playing with scared money
1) the value of your investment dips momentarily. Scared money usually exit here to "play safe"
2) the value of your investment increases faster than you expect, but does not hit your expected return yet. There's another week to go, and it could still hit the projected value. Scared money will often take the money here and cash out, thinking they have made a handsome profit. In reality, they have lost expected returns. If they do this often, they can expect to actually lose money in the long run
3) It's nearing the end of the month, and the price hasn't moved. You need the money soon. The odds tell you you're still a favourite to make a profit, but you lack the time. You cash out, and the price rises to your expected value the following week. This is the most dangerous of all. Because it drives people crazy. Crazy people do not follow the odds. They curse the heavens and start buying without consultation of the odds. This is how most people who don't practice bankroll management usually end up broke.
That's all I have for this topic at this point. I await Andrew to point out i'm backpedaling by preaching another concept other than odds calculations, but i urge everyone to keep in mind that bankroll management has nothing to do with how you invest. It should not affect the strategy of investment. All it affects is how much you invest. Too many people have confused the two when they are playing with scared money.